Vox

Musings, rants, rambling, general nonsense

Odds On Lottery

Posted on | April 2, 2012 | 2 Comments

I listen to Dennis Prager almost everyday on my commute to the office. Almost everyday he covers a topic I want to comment on – but I rarely get around to actually writing a post.

This morning, though, he was covering the Mega-Millions lottery – and I have just a quick thought. Because I think he is wrong about something, and it is a mistake I nearly made in a post myself this weekend. Maybe you will say I am wrong..let’s see.

He said: If you buy more than one ticket, you haven’t increased your odds. Your odds are still the same 1:176 million.

I had that thought Saturday, but then I thought it through a bit more. Let’s dissect.

  • If you buy one ticket, with the numbers 1-3-4-5-6 (7), your odds are approx 1:176 million
  • If your friend buys a ticket with the numbers 2-4-5-6-7 (8), their odds are approx 1:176 million

Each ticket has the same odds, therefore:

  • If you bought both of those tickets, each ticket would have odds of approx 1:176 million
  • However, YOU would have increased your odds to approx 2:176 million because you now have TWO of the possible combinations.
  • If you had the money, and you bought 176 million tickets, each ticket would be 1:176 million, but the group of tickets would have reduced your odds to basically 1:1 (176,000,000:176,000,000, reduced) – because you ARE going to win (though there is no guarantee you will win alone, so it is still a gamble to try that, even when the prize is so great).

So, did I get it right – or did Dennis?

(BTW: I still don’t think it is a smart way to plan for your retirement)



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Category: education, General
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Comments

2 Responses to “Odds On Lottery”

  1. CapitalistPig
    April 3rd, 2012 @ 9:54 pm

    It’s been a few years since my Stats classes, but I think you are mixing Odds with Probability.

    Odds are the ratio of chances to win vs. the number of other outcomes. Buying two tickets may improve your probability of winning, but you only reduce your non-winning number combinations by one (e.g. 1:176,000,000 becomes 1:175,999,999).

  2. John Moore
    April 4th, 2012 @ 9:30 pm

    Dennis is wrong. Odd’s colloquially mean probability. If you buy more tickets (with different numbers on them), you increase your odds – your probability of winning.

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